In astrologer Shelly Gonella's research, with Flávio Bolsonaro's birth time taken from his birth certificate, the count stops being a tie. The answers, in three questions:

• Who wins the 2026 election? Flávio Bolsonaro, with a dispute over the result that lasts until mid-November and a government that starts under pressure. That is where most of the signs in the sky analysed by astrologer Shelly Gonella point, from the charts for the election quarter to the inauguration chart.
• Who wins the runoff? The stronger tendency is for Flávio, with 68% of the astrological signs.
• Is there a chance Lula wins? There is, and it is low: 32% of the astrological signs. Almost all of Lula's chance comes from horary astrology. And astrologer Shelly Gonella's first reading, with horary astrology at its centre, put Lula ahead in the first round and Lula winning the runoff, by a small margin. The first round exposed the fragility of horary astrology, because the one who came out ahead was Flávio.

The full counts are in 2026 elections: what the sky showed in the first round and what comes until the inauguration. This article takes a close look at Lula's side: where his chance lies, what weighs against him and what would turn the count around.

Before the analysis, the techniques of this study, in plain words:

• Birth chart: the picture of the sky at the minute and place a person is born. To be drawn, it needs the date, time and city of birth.
• Ascendant and Midheaven: the two points of the chart that depend on the exact time. The Ascendant is the sign rising on the horizon and speaks of the person and their image; the Midheaven is the highest point of the chart and speaks of career and public standing.
• Horary astrology: the chart of the sky at the minute the astrologer asks a question, here "which of the two has the better chance of winning the presidency?". Each candidate becomes a planet, and the answer comes from the strength of each one and the relationship between the two. It does not depend on anyone's birth time.
• Synastry: the comparison of two charts, laid one over the other. In this research, each candidate's chart over Brazil's chart, to see how each one connects with the country.
• Transits: where the planets are in the sky on a given day, and which point of someone's birth chart they are passing over. It is the technique that shows what is happening to the person during that period.
• Event chart: the chart of the sky for an event, such as the opening of the polls or the inauguration, calculated for Brasília.
• Ingress: the chart of the instant the Sun enters the sign that opens a season. In mundane astrology, which is the astrology of countries, it describes a country's next three months.
• Cycles and eclipses: the meetings between the slowest planets, which mark decades, and the eclipses, which mark months. They set the mood of a period.
• Solar return, progressions and solar arc: techniques for personal forecasting. The solar return is the birthday chart and describes the year that begins; progressions and solar arc move the birth chart forward in time.

Lula's chance lies in two places: in horary astrology, which is the only method in this election that does not depend on anyone's birth time, and in Flávio's birth time, which comes from a certificate no outsider has seen.

It is the strongest argument on his side. In the horary astrology chart Shelly Gonella cast on 3 October, at 11:44, in Porto Ferreira, Lula is Venus and Flávio is Mars. Venus was in Scorpio, a sign where she loses strength, under Mars's power, and it was this side of horary astrology that the first round showed. Even so, the first reading, made the day before, put Lula ahead in the first round, and the first round exposed the fragility of horary astrology, because the one who came out ahead was Flávio.

On the 25th, Venus changes situation. At 06:00 on the morning of the vote, before the polls open, Venus returns to Libra, her own domicile. In the tradition of horary astrology, the planet that regains its dignity on the day of the outcome gains strength. Adding up the signs, horary astrology goes to Lula, by a small margin.

The close of the dispute also passes through Venus. On 13 November, she turns direct again. In horary astrology, it is Lula's planet resuming its motion on the day the dispute is unblocked.

The opening of the polls touches his Venus. At 08:00 on the 25th, the Brasília Ascendant, at Sagittarius 9°, makes a sextile to Lula's natal Venus, within a degree. In his chart, Venus is the capacity to please and to be chosen, and the morning of the vote begins by looking toward it.

Mars passes over Lula's Midheaven. On voting day, Mars is at Leo 15°, within less than two degrees of his Midheaven. It is the strength of someone who fights for the office to the end. Mars also makes a sextile to Lula's natal Jupiter and Uranus, which give the campaign breath in the final stretch.

The Sun draws near his Sun. Lula's birthday is on 27 October, two days after the vote. On the 25th, the Sun in the sky is already a little over a degree from his natal Sun, which is the time of year when personal vitality is renewed, and it makes a trine to his North Node.

Saturn trines Lula's Pluto. It is endurance, the capacity to withstand pressure for a long time, which is the hallmark of his career.

Lula's synastry with Brazil's chart has very exact contacts, and they explain why he arrives competitive at every election he contests:

• Lula's Sun falls on Brazil's Mars, within 0.1°: his identity bound to the country's drive to act.
• Lula's Neptune trines Brazil's Moon, within 0.2°. The Moon, in a country's chart, is the people; Neptune is image and devotion. It is the picture of an emotional bond with the voter.
• Lula's Mars and Saturn trine Brazil's Midheaven, within one degree: his link with the seat of government, which he has already held for three terms.

These contacts are permanent, and so they weigh little in the count of a specific round. They explain why Lula always arrives strong in the race; what decides the day are the charts of the moment.

The sky also exacts a high price from Lula at the end of this October. Pluto is squaring his natal Sun, heading for the exact point on 2 December, and Saturn opposes his Venus, within half a degree. On the eve, 24 October, Mercury stations over Lula's Ascendant and turns retrograde. And the Sun's ingress into Libra, the chart of the election quarter, places Lula's Midheaven at the bottom of the sky, the place where a cycle ends.

Three things would make Lula win:

• A different time for Flávio. The AA rating comes from a certificate sent to Astro-Databank by a contributor, and astrologer Shelly Gonella has not seen the document. Without that time, the counts from the earlier research apply, and in them Lula stays ahead, by a small margin, with horary astrology: 54% against 46%.
• Horary astrology with the final word. In traditional horary astrology, the chart answers the question that was asked, and the other charts describe the climate in which it happens. Whoever gives horary astrology the final word arrives at Lula.
• A different time for Lula. His birth time, 6:10, comes from an account, not a certificate. Lula's Ascendant and Midheaven, which enter several of the signs against him in this count, change with it.

In astrologer Shelly Gonella's count, with the same weights as the other studies and only the runoff:

With the horary technique, the count stands at 68% of the signs for Flávio and 32% for Lula; without it, at 85% for Flávio and 15% for Lula.

Lula has a real chance when horary astrology enters the count: close to one in three. Without horary astrology, his chance falls to about one in seven.

What this number measures: each sign in the sky enters the count with a weight, strong or weak, and the 68% is the share of that weight pointing to Flávio, and the 32% the share pointing to Lula. It shows which way the reading leans and how firmly. An election poll estimates votes; this count measures the inclination of the sky, and the ballot box gives the score.